Topic 10 – Don’t Forget to Consider Inflation

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Do you remember a big brother Bill and a little sister Jill, and their example of sequence of returns risk? Do you remember what their income was? We withdrew 4% out, but average inflation on their income payments at 3%, moving all the way through their retirement. Inflation as a factor that has to be factored in on your retirement income plan. Let’s look at some historical inflation figures and see how they might factor into your retirement income plan. On this slide, we see average inflation from 1914 to 2018 was actually 3.23%. Now some may say that we’re not in that type of an inflationary period now, and maybe we shouldn’t use quite that high of a number. The question is here, what number should you apply? And should that number be adjusted on an annual basis? If we look at social security and pensions, social security includes a factor of our inflation through our payments called a COLA, a cost of living adjustment. In these years, we see inflation of income added to our social security payments, during these different years. Our pension may or may not include an inflation adjustment. But would you say that you would prefer to have some type of inflation adjustment on your income side? Especially if we know inflation on the expense side was averaging about 3.23%.

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